In light of the current situation in Kosova UNPO responds in the International Herald Tribune, citing the potential opportunity to peacefully settle international disputes through the development of a new international system that moves beyond the Westphalian state system.

Below is a statement issued by UNPO and published by the International Herald Tribune:

Drew Thompson and Nikolas Gvosdev ("Whose problem is it?" Views, Jan. 29 [2008]) rightly point to the work that must be done - from the South Caucasus to Taiwan - should Kosovo proceed with a unilateral declaration of independence. Their analysis suggests that an ambiguous international status results in a catalogue of uncertainties and constraints that impede development and impose real costs upon the people of such territories.

More progress might therefore be made if some effort was put into the development of an international system that offers real opportunities for and engagement with such territories, moving us, perhaps, beyond a race in which statehood remains the ultimate prize.

Below is an article published in the International Herald Tribune written by Drew Thompson and Nikolas Gvosdev, to which UNPO responded:

Within a month, Kosovo is expected to unilaterally declare its independence from Serbia. With both Serbian presidential candidates adamantly opposed to the province's separation - and Russia's steadfast position that no change in Kosovo's status can occur without Belgrade's consent - the likelihood of any compromise solution that can secure the support of all five permanent members of the Security Council seems nil.

Most of the commentary on what happens "the day after" Kosovo declares independence - without any formal mandate from the United Nations - has focused on Russia's likely reaction and whether or not the other unrecognized states of the Black Sea region, including two breakaway regions of Georgia - will seek independence.

Forgotten in many of these discussions is what China - the "forgotten fifth" permanent member - will do. China has boots on the ground in Kosovo - Beijing deployed civilian police officers from Sichuan Province to Kosovo in 2004. Faced with indications that the United States and most member-states of the European Union will recognize Kosovo - while Russia will not - Beijing will have to decide where its interests most closely lie. China doesn't want Kosovo to become an irritant in its relations with Europe or the United States. On the other hand, Beijing does not want Kosovo's situation to complicate the question of Taiwan's international status.

Always deliberate, China will respond to Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence by waiting a few days to see how Russia, the United States and the European Union will respond. After all, China gains no advantage if Kosovo remains in an ambiguous legal state between de facto and de jure independence, recognized by some countries and not by others, particularly if it provides Taiwan opportunities to expand its international space through diplomatic relations. But China's cautious approach might be harried by more nimble moves by Taiwan.

Kosovo may be geographically removed from East Asia but what happens there could have potential implications for Taiwan. Taipei strongly supported the NATO intervention in 1999 and pledged $300 million in aid to Kosovar Albanian refugees. Taiwan's "dollar diplomacy" has won it recognition as a sovereign state from a small number of countries, mostly in Latin America and Africa, that benefit from Taiwanese investment and aid.

Unemployment in Kosovo hovers at about 60 percent; much of the province's natural resources cannot be developed without massive infusions of capital. Generous offers of aid from Taiwan might be tempting for Kosovo's leadership, especially if Russia blocks Kosovo's membership in the United Nations and other international organizations.

Despite repeated assurances from Washington and the capitals of Europe that the emergence of an independent Kosovo sets no precedent - and the United States continues to publicly object to any unilateral change in the status quo over Taiwan - a unilateral declaration of independence by Pristina would definitely be exploited by independence-leaning candidates in Taiwan's presidential elections in March, further exacerbating strained relations between China and Taiwan.

So the Kosovo issue could unexpectedly crop up as a real problem in East Asia.

One way to avoid any crisis would be for Beijing to move quickly to recognize Kosovo's independence, and match any offer made by Taipei. This seems unlikely, however. Beijing has signaled in the past that it would want a new UN resolution to replace UNSC 1244 - something unlikely to occur in the face of continued Russian opposition. And trying to buy Kosovo's support might be too expensive for China, since Taiwan will undoubtedly make generous aid offers.

Another would be for the United States and the European Union to use their own significant political and financial leverage to persuade the Kosovar leadership to spurn any Taiwanese offer - but Taipei has shown in the past that it is willing to spend a great deal to gain recognition. Moreover, many in Kosovo feel that there is a pro-Serb tilt in Beijing. Why turn down concrete aid if a new UN resolution is not forthcoming?

But the West needs to be ready to act to prevent a Kosovo-Taiwan relationship from developing - and cannot be caught by surprise. The establishment of diplomatic ties between Taipei and Pristina would torpedo any effort to settle the Kosovo question in the Security Council.

Previously, China has used its veto to block UN deployments to countries - like Guatemala and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia - that maintained diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Allowing Taiwan to achieve diplomatic recognition from Kosovo is clearly against China's interest and Beijing will take whatever steps it feels are necessary.

Kosovo is already a European problem - but preventing it from becoming an Asian one is still possible.

Click below to view Drew Thompson and Nikolas Gvosdev:

Whose Problem is it?