Climate change is likely to alter the migration patterns of the Maasai reserve’s wildlife, possibly causing tourists to go elsewhere and, which in turn would seriously harm the local economy.

Below are extracts from  an article published by Business Daily Africa:

Last year [2006], flash floods hit the Maasai Mara Game Reserve turning roads into streams and damaging the infrastructure.

Months later, there is growing fear that we have not seen the last of the flash floods and that climate change will affect the way Kenya runs its  tourism sector.

“The flash floods were part of a shift in climate change and we need to start looking at how this could continue to impact on us in future,” the Ewaso Ngiro South Development Authority (ENSDA) the managing director, Mr Francis Nkako, said.

Although the floods brought forth the issue of poor infrastructure in and around the reserve, little was said about the timing. Rains falling in December in the area are not the norm.

It is now acknowledged that a shift in climatic conditions could spell doom, affecting the growth of grass and vegetation and lead to an animal migration shift.

Mr Nkako said both dry spells and heavy rains could impact negatively on the annual famous wildebeest, zebra and antelope migration from Serengeti to the Maasai Mara, which has raised the profile of tourism in the country.

The game reserve is one of the sector’s popular attractions, having received the second highest number of visitors in 2006 — 316,500 — according to the 2007 Economic Survey.

Already, the reserve is faced with the destruction of part of the Mau Forest complex, especially Maasai Mau Forest, which in turn has affected the water table in the area. ENSDA is currently carrying out projects to conserve the forest and prevent future degradation that would lead to negative impact on the local economy.

The destruction of forests in the Mau forest has led to shrinking of lakes in the region. One of the country’s highest earning national parks, Lake Nakuru, which earned over Sh400 million last year, has been shrinking over the years mainly due to the destruction of forests in the surrounding area and rising temperatures. The destruction has led to shrinking water levels.

During a presentation at an eco-tourism conference in October [2007], the Chief Executive of Tourism Trust Fund (TTF), Dr Dan Kagagi, noted that the country was witnessing the negative impact of climate change.

The melting of glaciers on Mt Kilimanjaro and Mt Kenya had led to the shrinking of some lakes in the region, mainly due to insufficient inflow of water.

“While climate change will affect every sector of the economy, the tourism industry will be hardest hit, especially by unusual torrential rains and long droughts,” he added.

Climate change may increase the frequency of flooding, drought and land degradation and subsequently reduce the viability of recreational activities and wildlife safaris in the country. The wildlife in the reserves and national parks are closely connected to climatic conditions.

“Change in rainfall patterns is affecting land productivity and consequently the composition, structure and performance of vegetation, which in turn affects associated herbivores and their predators,” said Fanuel Tollo, the project officer at Climate Network Africa, which researches on climate change in the country.

The rise of temperatures, he said, would lead to reduction in the number of species in parks, change of animal activities — hampering game drives, and also the population of wildlife species. 

Heat waves, forest fires, rising seas, droughts, diseases and flash floods could turn profitable tourist destinations into holiday horror stories.

The tourism industry could be faced with huge costs as global warming begins to influence decisions about when and where people will go on holiday.

During a recent conference by the UN World Tourism Organisation, a top official noted that every destination has a climate related component that is threatened by climate change. 

The sector directly depends on the climate and most tourists make their decisions depending on this.

“Mountain, island and coastal destinations are considered particularly sensitive to climate-induced environmental changes, as are nature-based tourism segments,” Dr Kagagi said.

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Currently tourism is the highest foreign exchange earner. Last year the industry earned 56.2 billion, contributing 3.4 per cent to the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This year the sector is expected to earn Sh62 billion.

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Dr Kagagi noted that local destinations are already being affected by these changes, adding that western consumers, who make up the bulk of visitors into the country, are sensitive to climate change.

The tourism sector will have to come up with ways of adapting and mitigating the changes if it is to continue to thrive. According to the executive officer of the Ecotourism Society of Kenya (ESOK) Judy Gona, this is one issue that will challenge the fragmentation of the industry as there will be need for a unilateral voice.

Many players in the sector have posed the challenge of getting the sector to come up with sound policies.

“The country will also have to diversify its products to help meet future challenges,” she added. Over reliance on two main products could spell doom should either be affected by climate change. Hence diversification will leave the country with other options that will help attract visitors.

In addition, the sector is faced with the challenge of creating a meaningful and effective response to climate change.

“The country should embark on strict monitoring of climate trends and incorporate new information in her tourism promotion,” Mr Tollo said.  The private sector can also play a role by offsetting carbon emission as part of their business strategy and aim to be carbon neutral as well as improve efficiency.

“As a destination, we need, at the policy level, to consider the wider use of bio-fuels in a bid to cut our emissions,” Dr Kagagi added.

In recognition of the impact climate change has on the country the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources recently held the first stakeholders’ workshop for the Development of the Environment Policy for Kenya.

The country will have to adapt to save the sector if earnings from the Maasai Mara and Lake Nakuru are to continue coming in. Though the destination as a whole is yet to lose out to others, loses are expected in the future.