Lieutenant General Soe Win, who replaced military intelligence chief Lieutenant General Khin Nyunt, is also on his way out.

Foreign intelligence officials monitoring Myanmar, diplomats based in Yangon and Burmese journalists inside the country have confirmed that General Maung Aye is in "huge trouble."

"Maung Aye has been told not to move out of the capital Yangon," said an Indian intelligence official, citing a signals intercept. Diplomats trying to meet him have been told not to "disturb" the number two leader of the military junta.

"This could be a prelude to his ultimate ouster," says Andrew Selth, author of the most authoritative book on the Myanmar defence forces - "Burma's Tatmadaw: Power Without Glory" . "His days are numbered."

Mr Selth has excellent contacts in the Myanmarese military . Besides his latest book, Selth has authored scores of very authentic monographs on the country's defence forces and intelligence services.

Lt-General Soe Win, who replaced the deposed military intelligence chief Lt-General Khin Nyunt, is also on his way out, intelligence officials and diplomats say.

Both Maung Aye and Soe Win have fallen out with Senior General Than Swe, who is opposed to any dialogue with pro-democracy leader Aung Sang Suu Kyi .

Maung Aye and Soe Win advocated "limited dialogue" with the pro-democracy leadership , Than Swe is interested only releasing prisoners but he is opposed to allow political parties to function and not at all willing to release Aung Sang Suu Kyi .

"Than Swe's recent visits abroad and diplomatic interaction has convinced him of the support of his neighbours, China and India and the ASEAN countries. He is therefore not willing to do too much to change the ways of the junta," says Burma analyst Larry Jagan.

Jagan, BBC's former chief of Asia-Pacific region, says Lieutenant General Soe Win has already been dropped but the announcement has not been made.

" That announcement will be made once Maung Aye has been handled. Either Maung Aye falls in line or gets the sack," says a Burmese journalist in Yangon , on strict conditions of anonymity.

He said Maung Aye is "under effective house arrest". But he said no heavy troop deployment near his official residence has been noticed.

" Military guards and secret agents in civvies have been placed on his house. Visitors including diplomats are told not to disturb the general,"said the Burmese journalist.

The only exception may be the Thai commander in chief. He is scheduled to meet Maung Aye on Tuesday.

Late last year, Than Swe sacked his military intelligence chief and prime minister Lt-General Khin Nyunt and got him and his businessman son tried for corruption. Some other military officials close to him were also sacked.

Source: Mizzima