May 01, 2007

Iraq: Kirkuk in the Balance


As security in oil-rich Kirkuk declines, some fear what has been described as the only success story in Iraq is now coming under threat.

As security in oil-rich Kirkuk declines, some fear what has been described as the only success story in Iraq is now coming under threat. 

Below is an extract from an article written by Mark Lattimer and published by the Guardian:

As 20,000 extra US troops arrived in Baghdad in February as part of George Bush's "Baghdad security plan", I asked a university professor there if she thought the Americans staying would improve security. "No," she said, "it will get worse." And if they leave? "It will still get worse. There is no win-win option any more. Whatever happens now, the people of Iraq will be the losers." 

[…]

Now, while Iraqi and US soldiers' lives are being risked at checkpoints around Baghdad's Sadr City, the greatest threat to Iraq's unity and to its remaining hopes of democracy lies 150 miles north in the oil-rich city of Kirkuk. Under Saddam Hussein's policy of Arabisation, tens of thousands of Kurds and Turkmen were expelled from Kirkuk or forced to register as Arabs, and Arabs, mainly poor Shia from the south, were settled there. All the Kurdish politicians I met last week expressed their determination to implement the provisions of the new Iraqi constitution that call for a "normalisation" process enabling Kurds to reclaim their lands, and a referendum on the future of the Kirkuk area by December. With the government in Baghdad falling apart and America's days in Iraq numbered, the Kurds realise that unless they act soon, their chances of bringing Kirkuk into Iraqi Kurdistan will soon slip away. 

In April the Iraqi cabinet agreed a voluntary package giving Arabs who were moved to Kirkuk 20m dinars (£7,500) and a plot of land in their area of origin if they agreed to leave. Non-Kurdish political parties reacted angrily to the plan, and inter-communal violence has increased. In fact, Kirkuk has become so dangerous that persuading Kurds to return may prove a lot harder than persuading others to go. Without a political solution soon, it seems inevitable that the situation will become as bad as in Baghdad or Mosul, and could threaten the security of Kurdistan itself. 

That would be a grave loss. Kurdistan is unique in Iraq in enjoying relative security. The Kurdish units of the Iraqi army you see at checkpoints are disciplined, and there has been little of the sectarian bloodletting that has stained the rest of the country.

A sentiment heard repeatedly outside Kurdistan is that it is worse now than under Saddam. The failure to bring even minimal security to Iraq has rendered the attempts to install democracy next to worthless. Only in Kurdistan has the rule of law enabled democratic institutions to develop. "What we have here is the only success story in Iraq," I was told last week by Dr Mohammed Ihsan, the Kurdish minister responsible for negotiating on Kirkuk. "If the Americans don't sort out the Kirkuk issue, they will lose what they built here."